🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.