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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train approaching, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.