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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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