How Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough That Escaped Joe Biden
At first, the Israeli air strike on the Hamas militant negotiating team in Qatar appeared like another intensification that drove the hope of peace further away.
The attack on September 9 violated the sovereignty of an US partner and threatened widening the conflict into a broader regional conflict.
Negotiations seemed to be collapsing.
Instead, it proved to be a pivotal event that culminated in a deal, announced by Donald Trump, to free all captives still held.
This is a goal that he, and Joe Biden before him, had sought for nearly two years.
This marks just the initial phase towards a more durable peace, and the details of Hamas disarmament, administering Gaza and full Israeli withdrawal are still to be negotiated.
Yet if this agreement holds, it could be Donald Trump's defining accomplishment of his second term - one that escaped Biden and his administration.
The president's unique style and key alliances with Israel and the Middle Eastern nations appear to have played a role in this breakthrough.
But, as with most foreign policy wins, there were also factors at play beyond the control of either man.
Strong Ties Which Eluded Biden
In public, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.
Trump often states that the nation has no better friend, and Netanyahu has described him as Israel's "greatest ever ally in the US presidency". And these positive statements have been backed up by actions.
During his initial time in office, Trump moved the US embassy in the country from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and abandoned a long-held US position that Israeli settlements in the occupied territories are against international law, the position under global norms.
After Israel began its bombing campaign against Iran in the summer, Trump ordered American aircraft to target the Iran's atomic sites with its most powerful conventional bombs.
Those visible shows of support may have allowed the president the room to exert more influence on Israel in private. As per sources, the president's envoy, his representative, browbeat Netanyahu in the latter part of the year into accepting a halt in fighting in return for the freeing of some hostages.
When Israeli forces attacked against Syria's military in the summer, including bombing a Christian church, the US president urged his counterpart to alter tactics.
Trump exhibited a degree of determination and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is rarely seen, according to an analyst of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It's unheard of of an US leader literally telling an Israeli leader that you're going to have to comply or else."
Biden's connection with the Israeli administration was always more strained.
The Biden team's "close embrace strategy" held that the United States had to support Israel openly in order to enable it to moderate the country's military actions in private.
Beneath this was the president's nearly half-century of backing for the state, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move Biden took risked dividing his own domestic support, whereas his successor's loyal conservative voters provided him more flexibility to manoeuvre.
In the end, internal considerations or individual ties may have had little impact than the simple fact that, during Biden's presidency, the Israeli government was unwilling to make peace.
Eight months into Trump's second term, with the Islamic Republic weakened, Hezbollah to its immediate north greatly diminished and the coastal strip in ruins, all its key military goals had been accomplished.
Commercial Background Helped Secure Support from Arab States
An Israeli strike in the Qatari capital, which killed a local national but no Hamas officials, led Trump to deliver an ultimatum to the prime minister. Hostilities had to end.
The US leader had allowed the Israeli military a significant latitude in Gaza. The president provided US armed support to Israel's campaign in the neighboring country. But an attack on Qatari territory was a different matter completely, moving him towards the stance of Arab nations on how best to conclude the conflict.
Several Trump officials have told media outlets that this was a turning point which galvanised the leader to apply maximum pressure to get a peace deal done.
This US president's strong connections with the Arab monarchies are well documented. Trump has business dealings with the emirate and the United Arab Emirates. The president began each of his administrations with state visits to the kingdom. This year, he also stopped in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
His Abraham Accords, which established ties between the Jewish state and a number of Arab nations, such as the UAE, was the most significant diplomatic achievement of his initial presidency.
His visits he spent in the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula in recent months contributed to shift his perspective, according to an expert of the a policy institute. The US president did not visit the country on this regional tour but visited the UAE, the kingdom and Qatar where the leader heard repeated calls to bring an end to the conflict.
Less than a month after that attack on Doha, Trump sat close as Netanyahu himself called the Qatari leadership to express regret. Subsequently, the prime minister gave approval on Trump's 20-point peace plan for the territory - one that additionally had the backing of key Muslim nations in the area.
If Trump's alliance with his counterpart gave him the room to pressure the government to strike a deal, his past with Arab rulers may have ensured their backing, and helped them convince the group to agree to the arrangement.
"One of the things that clearly happened was that President Trump developed influence with the Israeli government, and through intermediaries with the militants," says Jon Alterman of the a research center.
"That made a difference. The capacity to achieve this on his timing, and not succumb to the demands of the combatants has been a problem that lot of earlier administrations have struggled with, and he seems to handle relatively successfully."
The fact that the president is far better liked in Israel than the prime minister personally was leverage that Trump employed to his advantage, he adds.
Currently the Israeli government has committed to releasing over a thousand Palestinians held in Israeli prisons and has consented to a partial withdrawal from the strip.
Hamas will free all the captives still held, both alive and deceased, captured during the initial October 7 Hamas attack, which resulted in the death of over 1,200 Israelis.
An end to the war, which has led to the destruction of Gaza and the fatalities of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal